Deadlines & Evaluation

The competition started on January 1, 2018 when the 100,000 time series were made available on the M4 website and it is still open to those wishing to participate.

The participants are being asked to submit their point forecasts no later than May 31, 2018 before midnight. The same stands for the prediction intervals, whose submission is optional, but would be considered for the prize of the most accurate intervals.

More specifically, we would expect to attract a great number of participants from business schools and finance, computer science, and engineering departments of universities, financial analysts, departments of banks and financial institutions as well as individuals. The attraction to participate, beyond winning a prize, will be the experience in competing in an international challenge and the publicity to be gained from one’s accurate forecasts.

Submissions take place on the M4 website, using an appropriate form. Teams are also welcomed as long as none of its members participate as individuals. In that case, the team leader must create a profile and then add the members of his/her team.

The winner of M4 will be determined by evaluating the average accuracy of the point forecasts provided by weighting two accuracy metrics, as presented in the M4 – Competitors Guide. The Guide also describes the metrics that will be used for evaluating the performance of the prediction intervals submitted by the participants.

An illustrative example (R code) for evaluating the point forecasts of the M4 Competition benchmarks can be found here.

September 28, 2017